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03/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After losing its first three games after the Winter Olympics, Dallas is coming off a victory that could very well turn its luck around. Now all it has to do is pick up its first victory at Buffalo in over 12 years.
The Stars shoot for that rare victory tonight at HSBC Arena versus the Sabres, who are aiming to win three in a row overall for the first time in over two months.
Dallas was outscored 17-5 over its post-Olympic slide and was facing the highest-scoring team in the league on Monday in Washington. Things didn't look good when the Stars found themselves down 2-0 after two periods and outshot 42-16.
However, the Stars scored three times in the third frame, and though they allowed the game-tying goal late in the third they still escaped with a 4-3 shootout win over the Capitals.
Brad Richards and Trevor Daley scored on the power play early in the third before James Neal gave Dallas its first lead in the frame. Though Marty Turco surrendered the game-tying goal to Alex Ovechkin with 3:16 left in the third, he ended with a career-high 49 saves and stopped four-of-five skaters in the shootout.
Richards and Loui Eriksson scored in the shootout, with Eriksson getting the game-winner in the fifth round.
"I don't care if I see one shot cause it's all about the win", said Turco. "We made some great plays tonight to have a chance in the third period and the guys came through, especially on the power play. This was a big win for us and now we can use it to turn things around."
Dallas, which won for the third time in its last four road games and ends a three-game swing tonight, come into this game five points back of a playoff spot in the Western Conference.
If the Stars want to close that gap, they will need to earn their first victory in western New York since October 7, 1997. They have four losses and a tie in four trips there since.
The Stars have also lost four straight overall to the Sabres, including a 5-4 shootout setback in Dallas last season. Turco made 31 saves for Dallas, which hasn't beaten Buffalo since March 31, 2003.
Ryan Miller posted 21 saves in that victory and he has guided the Sabres to consecutive overtime victories. That has Buffalo in position to win three in a row for the first time since a six-game burst from December 27-January 8.
Miller is 2-1-0 with a 1.64 goals-against average in three starts since leading the U.S. to a silver medal in the Winter Olympics. He made 27 saves in a 3-2 win over Philadelphia on Friday, then stopped 35 shots two days later in a 2-1 triumph versus the New York Rangers.
Adam Mair scored in regulation and Patrick Kaleta had the game-winner 2:22 into OT, upping his career-high goal total to nine. The victory snapped an eight-game road losing streak (0-6-2) and was the club's second straight since a 1-6-2 stretch.
"It was a good game," Kaleta said. "I thought we skated hard and had some desperation."
The Sabres are tied with the Senators for first place in the Northeast Division thanks to their recent struggles.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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